As we approach the halfway point of the NBA season, this is a good time to examine the totals. There are many factors from a disability perspective that go into understanding the totals. Team defense, training, a dominant shot that blocks a big man, home court can all be factors when looking at the unders. Things like coaching philosophy, youth and depth need to be taken into account when trying to identify overs.
Let’s take a look at this season’s standout team: Seattle. The Sonics started 29-11 on aggregate. Talk about a handicap bias! That’s nearly three of Seattle’s four games overall. Why is this? This is a case where an aberration is not occurring, as there are various reasons for it. First, this is not a happy team. Remember that coach Nate McMillan made these guys stand out last season, but he went to Portland. A new coach came in and a lot of things fell apart, so much so that he was fired and assistant Bob Hill is the new head coach. McMillan’s ability to get these guys to play team-oriented basketball and defense hasn’t materialized under new coaches this season.
Also, they have decent small-sized roles playing up front that can rebound, but they don’t have big bodies to act as defensive deterrents. What you’re left with is a group of scorers who want the ball, essentially. Seattle’s defense has been a joke all season, currently allowing 105 points per game and shooting .495% from opponents. Both are the worst marks in the NBA. This is not something that is likely to change anytime soon.
I also mentioned youth as a factor. This is the case with Toronto and Boston, two teams that are rebuilding around a host of young draft picks. Both have good offense but serious defensive weaknesses. Note that Toronto is allowing 103 ppg on the road where they started 13-8 overall. The Celtics allow 107 points per game on the road where they started 13-7 on total. Due to their youth, this is a trend that is more likely to continue than for them to suddenly start playing much-improved defense, especially on the road.
Other times, teams can change in the middle of a season. The young Cavaliers have been working on defense since mid-December, and coaches and players admit that has been happening. Keep in mind that Cleveland is riding a 10-3 underdog streak this week.
Training philosophy is also an important reason. The Detroit Pistons went from being a strangling defensive team under Larry Brown in recent years to a more relaxed and open one offensively under new coach Flip Saunders, who has given this veteran team more freedom to be creative on offense. The Pistons, with their new look, are 13-6 over the road total.
The Spurs still have a tough defense under head coach Gregg Popovich, who also has the tools on the floor to pull it off with stoppers like Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen. San Antonio is 15-6 under total at home after being outstanding defensively at home last season as well. Memphis coach Mike Fratello preaches a tough defense, and the Grizzlies are under 14-5 on the home total, allowing only 84 points per game.
Two NBA teams are struggling offensively this season due to a lack of offensive options. Indiana has been plagued by injuries and a suspension and is 14-7 short on the road total. Minnesota is still looking for a third offensive option for Kevin Garnett and Wally Szcerbiak, and that is reflected in their 22-16 start under total.
And sometimes, it’s just the location. Denver continues to play its best offense at home, in part because visiting teams aren’t used to the stuffy air. Denver is averaging 106 ppg at home where they started 14-8 overall. Understanding all facets of totals, offense, defense, and team strengths and weaknesses can help sports bettors identify tangible trends to anticipate winning betting opportunities.
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