Let’s keep it “simple and easy” I hear people say!
The problem with trying to simplify any horse racing system is that simplicity is often based on a lack of information and information is the backbone of any system. But I agree that a system should be easy to operate and that is the responsibility of the system designer.
So how do we design a horse racing system?
The more data we have, the greater the chances of success. Many of the UK newspapers have racing sections, but it is the Racing Post that has the most comprehensive data set available. So I’ll reference the post throughout the article.
Whether it’s the sport of kings or any equine sport, you need a central idea or concept, whether it comes from a flash of inspiration or while lounging in the bathroom.
We will like this system in the handicap races, since they are the most frequent among the daily meetings.
For this example, the first criteria we will take is to consider the horses that are the favorites for the breed. They would appear to be the bookies first choice as a winner, but only about 32% of the favorites win their race and the odds are not good enough to make a profit. So in this case, we will limit our contenders to those with predicted odds of 7/2 or higher in the post. This will still leave us with plenty of potential selections for our horse racing system, but this could also mean longer lost races. For our next basic criteria, we’ll take the post’s rating mark, generally known as the PR Rating. We’re looking for a horse with a black spot next to his name on the race card. This means that the publication rates this as the best horse in the race. So our horse racing system now has its basic criteria. A favorite forecast with odds greater than 7/2 (3.5 decimal places) that also has the best rating with a black dot.
The above can be used on Flat, All Weather and National Hunt. So, the next stage in creating a horse racing system is filters. Filters are used to reduce the number of selections and hopefully avoid losers.
Although the horses at the top and bottom of the handicap win races and many of them at decent prices, we will exclude those at the top and bottom weights. Now our horse racing system is beginning to take shape. Weather conditions can have an adverse effect on certain horses, especially extreme conditions such as heavy or firm. The post indicates if the horse is in shape in such conditions and you can’t go wrong if you only follow horses that have positive ticks.
Many of our traditional flat racecourses have particular races that give the horse an advantage or disadvantage depending on how it is drawn. Again, this is indicated, and poorly drawn horses are generally best avoided.
There are many other filters and factors that we could apply, but we need to get the balance in terms of the number of bets and the potential winners and losers.
The Avon Handicap System uses this method of creating basic criteria and then applying filters. With any horse racing system, there are other factors that must be taken into account. Do you have a good betting bank, eg. You should also keep in mind that any horse racing system will not work at its best all the time and patience is needed. The different racing codes have their optimal months where the systems will operate most successfully. All you can ask of a system in certain months is that it can keep your head above water. And remember, don’t use money you can’t afford to lose.
So now our system is complete at this stage and it’s up to you to decide if you need any changes. All systems, whether free or purchased, should be tested first so that you are comfortable with their performance.
Our system now has the following criteria.
Favorite handicap forecast.
Forecast odds of at least 7/2.
Able to run under the conditions.
Able to run a distance. Not mentioned above, but just as important.
Drawn good in your case.
Good luck and may the force be with you.
