Mornings at Churchill Downs have been busy as preparations for the Breeders’ Cup World Championship are underway. Most of the contenders are already on the field making their final preparations with some preferring to stay at home in New York and California until the last possible minute. Not all horses are adapted to certain racing surfaces, so many trainers’ preference is to allow their horse as much time as he needs to become familiar with his surroundings. On the other hand, some coaches think they can accomplish more without all the distractions that come with this week and sending Churchill later. Horse racing is not an exact science; so saying that one way is better than the other is unfounded. Whichever horse got the flower bed covered over him or her after winning the race was the one that got groomed the “right way,” for this year anyway.
Coaches are like coaches in that they respond to media questions with the most obvious and clichéd answers. As sports tipsters, our job is to read between the lines to gain an advantage on point spread. The handicap for horses is no different, especially when looking at 8 different breeds at different distances and surfaces involving not only American horses, but also those from England, France and Ireland. The Breeders’ Cup draws a large following, and the amount of money wagered by these unsophisticated gamblers at the track and others around the world makes these races exceptional overlays. Those of us who follow the sport year-round have a distinct advantage over the general public, and when certain contenders are hyped by the media, our edge increases even more.
I follow horse racing all year. I don’t come out of nowhere like others when the big races happen. I come from a horse racing family with many years of rear end experience. If you read my article recommending Bernardini to win the Preakness below, you can see how much research I put into this. I don’t play anything but long shots, and to take advantage of the horses playing that way, you only need to hit 30% of the time, not the 52.4% needed to win sports bets at -110. I had success in the Cup last year with winners of $63.50 and $19.60, and I hope this year brings those good fortunes once again. The Form is calling.
#8 Bernardini (8-1): The lightweight racing colt is trained by the conservative but effective Thomas Albertrani. After serving as Bill Mott’s senior assistant for 9 years, Albertrani was hired by Godolphin Racing in 1995 and he moved to Dubai as assistant to trainer Saeed bin Suroor. While there, Albertrani learned a new training philosophy that contradicts the American way. He says to take royal bred horses, teach them at 2, then start racing them at 3. The idea is to make the horses more productive from the start while keeping them fresh for maximum potential in every race. run. Since his return in 2003, Albertrani has embraced this strategy and currently employs these tactics as a private trainer for current owner Darley Stable.
The above is the exact course taken by Bernardini, who has just 3 races to his credit before today. His sire is AP Indy and his grandsire is the great Seattle Slew, making Bernardini the best-bred horse in the field from a mudslide. That includes the heavy favorite Barbaro, whose bred is impeccable for turf racing, not dirt. In his debut on January 7, Bernardini faced a field of 11 in a sprint over 6 furlongs, losing by 5 1/4 lengths. He started ninth after a slow start, and was only 3 1/4 lengths back at the top of the straight before tiring and finishing fourth. The winner of that race, Exclusive Quality, has won twice since, including the Spectacular Bid Stakes. His second race came two months later, on March 4. This time Albertrani stretched him to a flat mile and Bernardini won and went by 7 3/4 lengths. He again had trouble with the door, this time slamming it on his way out. He went off as the favorite and beat a solid field that day, including buying High Finance for $1.8 million. Most impressive was the fact that Bernardini pulled away by more than 3 lengths in the final stretch of his first road race after a 2-month break. His last race was in the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct in which he won by 3 3/4 lengths despite the athlete losing his whip down the stretch. It was just a four-horse race, but he ran a flat mile in a fast time of 1:35 and that’s the fastest anyone in this field has run that distance. He had a 104 Beyer, which is the best number from the last race besides Barbaro’s 111 in the Derby.
Bernardini will be stalking the three speedhorses Like Now, Brother Derek and Diabolical from the second flight. Also in that group will be Barbaro, but Bernardini has the advantage of being on the outside, which will allow him to get the first jump in speed around the far corner. At the top of the final stretch, Bernardini will be in an ideal position to surprise. Unlike many here, Bernardini is designed to run all day and the extra distance should be welcomed as his number 409 Tomlinson suggests. As mentioned above, Coach Albertrani is conservative, but effective. He has saddled just 71 horses this year, winning 16 races for 23%. In graded stakes, he submitted 16 to the post and won 5 of those races at 31% for an ROI of $5.19. These numbers prove that his horses are alive every time they race, and he doesn’t race them just to run. Bernardini is our pick to dethrone Barbaro in The 131st Preakness Stakes. He plays Bernardini across the board; He wins, places and shows.
The above should prove that I know something about horses. Bernardini won easily at odds of 12-1. Forget about playing it in this year’s Clásico. Yes, he seems unbeatable on paper, but with odds being in the 3-5 range, you can have him. Don’t leave him out of your Pick 3 and 4, but as far as that race goes, he’ll just be below the others. My clients and I made our score with him and now it’s time to find the next Bernardini. The form keeps calling…
Repetition. Some like. Some don’t. As sports bettors we fall into both categories depending on whether the reversal or lack thereof helps our chances of winning a bet. Looking at this from a fan’s perspective, I’m having some issues with the college’s replay system. The Texas/Texas Tech game was almost unbearable to watch despite being a great game that also had some financial interest in Tech. It seemed like every other play was being reviewed which slowed down the game too much. There were 5 guys in the breeding booth at Tech, and numerous calls still failed. Five guys in the booth, but only one in the GT/Miami Fla game and he must have been on a pee break when there was no review on an INT (see article). The college system needs to adapt to the NFL system that only reviews plays that have a challenge from the coach unless there are less than two minutes. Go out and hire competent officers or check the replay system. It’s that easy.
